A patchwork of initiatives to boost the federal cyber workforce, already hobbled by a lack of data, face an uncertain future amid the Trump administration’s government downsizing efforts.

In a new report, the Government Accountability Office writes that strengthening the cyber workforce is one of the government’s “most important challenges” given threats to federal IT networks.

But GAO found most agencies have incomplete data on the size and cost of their cybersecurity workforces, limiting their ability to make strategic staffing decisions.

“This is especially important during administration transitions when new leadership needs assurance that the federal government is prepared and cyber-ready,” GAO wrote.

But the Trump administration’s sweeping workforce changes since Jan. 20 have raised further questions about how agencies will fill persistent cyber workforce gaps. Many employees, including those with cyber and tech talent, have taken the administration up on its deferred resignation program.

The acting head of the Department of Government Efficiency, which drove many downsizing efforts in the spring, recently said that the government needs more tech hires.

“When you do things like rely on attrition, forced and otherwise, to reduce federal government roles, the people with the best skills, the most marketable skills, the best work ethic, are the ones that leave,” Ron Sanders, a former federal human capital executive, said in an interview.

Some tech-focused agencies have faced mass departures and layoffs. The Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, for instance, is estimated to have lost roughly 1,000 staff to resignations, early retirements and terminations.

“These are not the 1,000 I would have gotten rid of,” Mark Montgomery, director of the Cyberspace Solarium Commission 2.0 at the Foundation for the Defense of Democracies, told Federal News Network. “Too many senior skilled people left. Way too much of your probationary workforce.”

CISA and CTMS

In March, CISA terminated about 130 probationary employees. Following a court order, those employees have been placed on administrative leave until early October.

Some of those employees were a part of DHS’s “Cyber Talent Management System.” The Department of Homeland Security introduced CTMS in 2021. It features higher salary rates and more flexible hiring practices compared to the federal government’s traditional pay and civil service system.

But those who enter CTMS are also subject to a three-year probationary period. A typical federal role features just a one-year probationary period, but trial periods under excepted service positions, like CTMS, can last longer.

One CISA probationary staffer, who discussed their situation on condition of anonymity, said they were surprised by CTMS’s extended probationary period when they joined the agency in 2022.

“I thought that was strange, but I’ve always done an excellent job no matter who my employer is, so I didn’t really find it threatening,” the CISA employee said.

The employee said they only received positive performance reviews during their time at CISA. Yet they, like many other probationary workers across government, received a termination letters that cited “poor performance” in February.

Many of those firings are now being challenged in court.

Regardless of the legal outcome, employees who recently joined CISA and were terminated as part of the probationary firings expressed feeling burned by the situation.

“The irony is they created [CTMS] to hire top talent because they knew government salaries were not particularly competitive with the private sector,” the CISA employee said.

Even before the Trump administration, CTMS had featured a modest rollout. As of last year, DHS had hired approximately 200 employees using the program, mostly at CISA.

Amid the Trump administration’s hiring freeze, currently no jobs are posted on DHS’s Cybersecurity Service website.

But CISA plans to continue CTMS, at least as a retention tool, according to a statement from the agency.

“CISA is fortunate to have an immensely talented team to carry out our core statutory mission as efficiently and effectively as possible,” CISA Director of Public Affairs Marci McCarthy told Federal News Network. “We continue to utilize a number of tools, including the Cyber Talent Management System, to retain top cybersecurity talent.”

Cyber initiatives and skills-based hiring

Beyond CTMS, agencies have launched numerous other cyber talent programs in recent years. The initiatives are aimed at improving recruiting, developing workforce skills and incentivizing retention. They were further galvanized by a 2023 National Cyber Workforce and Education Strategy issued by the Office of the National Cyber Director.

In its recent report, GAO found those initiatives range from governmentwide direct-hire authority for cyber and tech roles, to special salary rates implemented at specific agencies.

But GAO found most agencies haven’t evaluated the effectiveness of their cyber workforce initiatives.

“Until ONCD directs agencies to evaluate the effectiveness of their initiatives, ONCD’s goal of strengthening the federal cyber workforce through strategic workforce initiatives will be difficult to measure and may not be achieved,” GAO writes. “Further, improved insight into effective initiatives may help agencies prioritize initiatives with the greatest impact and return on investment.”

GAO also polled agencies for numbers on their cyber staffing. As of April 2024, agencies reported at least 63,934 federal cyber workers at an annual cost of $9.3 billion and 4,151 contractor staff at a yearly cost of $5.2 billion.

“However, these amounts are incomplete and unreliable and do not reflect the full size and cost of the cyber workforce,” GAO added.

GAO’s report doesn’t contain any updates on cyber workforce initiatives or staffing numbers since the Trump administration took office.

Recent reorganizations have impacted cyber-specific work, however. The State Department, for instance, has cut dozens of cyber and tech roles as part of a broader reorganization, Politico reported in July.  And the National Security Agency has been directed to eliminate potentially thousands of civilian employees, in line with broader Defense Department goals, Recorded Future reported in May.

While DoD has faced less reductions compared to civilian agencies, officials there are still bracing for cuts to the defense cyber workforce.

Meanwhile, lawmakers have raised concerns about the hiring freeze’s impact on the federal cyber workforce.

Despite the cuts, some cyber policy expects hope Sean Cairncross, the new national cyber director, can re-galvanize federal efforts around cyber talent.

“NCD really does have a big workforce role,” Montgomery said.

Last year, ONCD and the Office of Personnel management announced an effort to transition all jobs in the IT management “2210” series to skills-based hiring. Cyber experts say relying on skills-based assessments to make hiring decisions, as opposed to education and experience, can also help expand the cyber workforce.

An OPM spokeswoman said effort to transition 2210 jobs to skills-based hiring is continuing in the new administration.

“The Trump administration is accelerating skills-based hiring across government,” OPM spokeswoman McLaurine Pinover told Federal News Network. “For the IT Management job series (2210), OPM is continuing its transition to fully skills-based hiring and expects to complete the shift by the end of 2025. Updated qualification guidance for the IT series will be issued soon and serve as a model for other critical job series.”

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