The European Union has recognized that its strategic autonomy and influence in space are shaped by evolving geopolitical dynamics, which can range from peaceful cooperation to competition or conflict among global powers. The agency highlights how the geopolitical landscape of space activities affects the EU’s current and future capabilities, with a strong focus on leveraging space for security and defense while addressing space-related risks. It also emphasizes that future engagement in space is subject to rapidly changing geopolitical dynamics, which could shift from collaborative efforts to heightened competition or conflict among global powers.
In an in-depth analysis titled ‘EU capabilities in space: Scenarios for space security by 2050,’ the EU explores the geopolitical context of space activities, with a focus on security and defence, and the response to space-related risks. It presents four future scenarios, highlighting challenges and opportunities, while also considering policy implications for EU initiatives.
Acknowledging the critical nature of this issue, the European Commission plans to propose an EU space act in the second quarter of 2025.
The document noted that recent developments in the ongoing war in Ukraine, especially the unprecedented extent and magnitude of the use of space to support military operations on Earth, underscore the pressing need to address the weaponization of space. “Efforts to regulate space activities face hurdles due to a lack of consensus and the ambiguous delineation between civilian and military space uses within the paradigm of space arms control and legal frameworks. Harmful interferences, such as satellite jamming and cyberattacks, emphasize the need for robust legal frameworks to safeguard space assets.”
Furthermore, to safeguard outer space, additional normative frameworks are required to prevent the escalation of armed conflicts and the weaponization of this domain.
The Russian cyberattack on ViaSat’s KA-SAT satellite network, which occurred just hours before the invasion of Ukraine, serves as a poignant example of the weaponization of space and cyberspace. A key concern is the potential for military confrontation among major powers, fuelled by the involvement of new space players, the increase in space objects and dual civil-military space services, and armed forces’ growing reliance on space systems.
“The increasing counterspace capabilities and the presence of kinetic, non-kinetic, and electronic weapons, along with ever-growing cyber operations and the potential for nuclear activities in space, pose inherent security threats,” the analysis detailed. “The prospect of armed conflict in outer space raises grave concerns, including the multiplication of space debris and the disruption of critical civilian infrastructure essential for global communication, observation, navigation and timing.”
According to the UN Office for Disarmament Affairs (UNODA), kinetic space weapons are devices that use physical force to destroy or damage objects in space, such as anti-satellite missiles, space-based interceptors, and kinetic energy weapons. Non-kinetic space weapons are those that do not use physical means to disrupt or destroy objects in space (high-powered lasers, microwave weapons, or particle beam weapons).
Electronic space weapons are devices using electromagnetic energy to disrupt or destroy objects in space, such as electronic countermeasures, jamming systems, and electromagnetic pulse generators. Cyber operations in space are using computer networks and electronic systems to disrupt, disable, or destroy space-based assets, such as hacking, cyber-attacks and electronic warfare.
Unfortunately, the growing risks to space systems have not been reduced by successful arms control and disarmament dialogues. These risks are particularly pronounced for emerging spacefaring nations that may lack adequate situational awareness and manoeuvring capabilities to address potential threats effectively. Also, there is a broad range of destructive and non-destructive counterspace capabilities in multiple countries, yet only non-destructive capabilities are being actively used against satellites in current military operations.
Citing an own-initiative report on the Strategic Compass and EU space-based defence capabilities of Nov. 23, 2023, the Parliament recognized space systems as critical infrastructure and welcomed the findings and high-level of ambition in the recommendations on security and defence laid out in the EU space strategy. Furthermore, the Parliament recommended designing a comprehensive strategy that encompasses various risks, including space debris and cyber-attacks.
The resolution welcomed the proposal for an EU space law, which should aim to provide a common, harmonised and coherent security, safety and sustainability framework. This should improve the resilience of EU space services while tackling the space market’s excessive fragmentation. The report was Parliament’s response to the strategy, focusing on five priority areas – protection and resilience of systems; response to threats; competitiveness and investment; governance; and cooperation.
By combining the level of weaponization of space by 2050 with the level of EU economic growth, the analysis created a scenario matrix that provides a comprehensive framework for exploring the future of EU space security. The matrix is based on EU economic growth and level of weaponization of space in the long term.
These four scenarios can serve as a framework to provide insight into the potential challenges and opportunities, critical choices and trade-offs. They can also serve to inform the forthcoming discussions and legislative work of policymakers. The four scenarios have couple of shared challenges including space debris and sustainability, where the increasing number of satellites in orbit poses a significant risk to the space ecosystem, leading to potential collisions, debris and environmental degradation. Environmental concerns related to space debris should be seriously addressed, and all risks should be managed to prevent collisions and maintain a sustainable space environment.
It also covers weaponization of space as the development of counterspace capabilities and anti-satellite weapons threatens the stability of the space environment and raises concerns about the potential for conflict; and the level of global cooperation on agreements to regulate space activities: a coordinated global effort involving governments, private entities and international organizations could ensure the space sector’s growth is responsible, sustainable and beneficial for all, and help avoid conflicts over space resources and territories.
The analysis mentioned that the EU faces critical choices and trade-offs in four space scenarios, focusing on balancing risks and opportunities, investment versus return, and short-term goals against long-term strategic planning. These decisions will significantly impact the EU’s ability to enhance its security and assert global leadership in space. Several critical choices are recurring across the four scenarios, linked to trends and indicators that policymakers could monitor to identify potentially threatening developments and take safe and effective actions that involve low risk but also high potential for success and no significant trade-offs.
It calls for fostering international collaboration on space governance helps shape the future of global space regulations and ensure peace and sustainability in space, as well as equitable access to space resources for all nations. It also seeks to encourage innovation and technological advancement in key areas such as satellite technology, propulsion and space data analytics is highly important.
When it comes to sustainability and environmental responsibility, it is crucial to prioritise sustainable space practices. This involves balancing the growth of the space economy with the need to mitigate environmental impacts and protect the space ecosystem.
“A major question regarding the EU’s strategic autonomy in space is how to achieve and maintain it fully: whether through the development of its own capabilities, or through cooperation with other nations and international organisations,” the analysis observed. “Supporting the growth of the EU space industry would undoubtedly strengthen the EU’s competitive edge in the commercial space sector and ensure it technological sovereignty.”
Ultimately, the EU’s choices and trade-offs depend on its values, priorities, and vision for its role in the global space landscape. By considering the challenges, opportunities, choices and trade-offs presented in each scenario, one can reflect on the main elements needed for a comprehensive and forward-looking space policy that promotes its interests, supports sustainable development, and contributes to a more peaceful and stable world.
Clearly, an EU space policy and strategy, with adequate levels of political will and resources, are prerequisites to prevent the EU from falling behind on the global competitiveness scale, both in space and in other sectors enabled by space services. The EU can strengthen its position in space by taking several safe and effective actions that may be beneficial across four space scenarios.
Last week, the European Union Agency for Cybersecurity (ENISA) released an analysis to bolster the resilience of commercial satellites against cybersecurity threats. The ENISA space threat landscape aims to pinpoint and evaluate cybersecurity threats to commercial satellites, addressing current and emerging industry challenges. It offers recommendations for cybersecurity controls and mitigation strategies to ensure reliable and continuous deployment of satellite systems. These strategies stem from a thorough assessment of existing and potential threats and vulnerabilities in the space sector.
